Iowa Straw Poll

Recently, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani announced that they would not be participating in this year's Iowa straw poll. While the event itself is of limited importance in national politics, skipping the poll not only bucks political conventional wisdom but also leaves Iowans feeling like second-class citizens. In general, the straw poll in Ames, Iowa is best thought of as a good way...or the only way...for a presidential candidate to get a foot into Iowa before the Iowa caucuses. Winning the poll is not vital -- Pat Robertson, for instance, won the straw poll in 1987, but it was Bob Dole who won the Iowa caucuses and George Bush who ended up the Republican nominee and ultimately president. Participating, though, probably is vital: not participating in the poll sends a message to Iowa Republicans that is hardly favorable for the skipping candidate. Not participating in the straw poll means not campaigning in and not pouring massive amounts of campaign funds into a small state, but campaigning and spending campaign funds is what candidates do! If they are not campaigning and spending in Iowa, that means they've chosen to campaign and spend elsewhere which is doubtful to impress Iowa voters. Thus, I am skeptical that Giuliani will be able to ignore Iowa voters in the runup to the August 11th straw poll and yet, as he says he will, still realistically compete in the caucuses.

While Giuliani and McCain have attracted the most press, Jim Gilmore has also announced that he won't be participating in the straw poll either. On first glance this is incomprehensible; shouldn't a minor candidate for Gilmore be trying to compete everywhere he can? In fact, this may be a sensible decision. The Iowa straw poll is expensive -- there is no way on Earth that Gilmore can spend as much as Mitt Romney. However, Gilmore isn't going to be able to outspend Romney anywhere, so I don't see why Gilmore couldn't have run a stripped down campaign in Iowa. It doesn't cost a lot to say, "Please vote for me in Ames." The participation of other second-tier candidates is also in question, but it seems Tancredo and Tommy Thompson will certainly be competing. Perhaps one of those second-tier candidates can rise from obscurity in Iowa, though Romney is the heavy favorite to win the poll.

I am particularly sympathetic to Iowa because I am from a small state myself. Unlike Iowa, my small state doesn't usually play a big role in either the nominating or the electing of the president and, as a result, we receive limited attention from the candidates. Iowans have ingeniously managed to make themselves more important than they should be by virtue of the fact the Iowa caucuses occur so early on in the presidential season. Taken together, the Ames straw poll and the caucuses create an election season in Iowa that simply wouldn't exist otherwise. To be fair, the caucuses are a heck of a lot more important than the straw poll -- the poll itself could be described as a fundraising operation for the Iowa Republican party because people who want to vote in the poll must pay (or a campaign must pay for them) for the privilege whereas the caucuses play a role in determining both the Democratic and the Republican nominees. The important thing is that for a time Iowan voters are treated as if their vote counts a great deal. It's unfortunate that every state cannot have its own moment in the sun, but I am glad that Iowa and New Hampshire do have such influence in the nomination process. Ultimately, the majority does rule in America so it is only natural that the candidates will focus more on larger population areas as the presidential season progresses; the nomination process, however, reminds America that a vote cast in Iowa is in every way equal to a vote cast in any other state.