The Biden Plan for Iraq

One of the few things Americans by and large can agree on is that they are unhappy with the situation in Iraq. The plans differ, but the voices which once declared, "The situation is under control. Our mission is being achieved," are growing fainter and fainter. Everyone wants some kind of change; it's just that the desired changes vary wildly from person to person. Personally, I have four goals regarding Iraq: (1) I want the deaths of American troops there to stop, (2) I don't want there to be a civil war that will establish the governance of Iraq by violence, (3) I don't want Iraq to turn into a happy training ground for terrorists, and (4) I don't want any part of Iraq to be taken over by Iran. In general, most plans I've heard about skimp on one or more of these goals in order to focus on achieving the other goals; to me, it seems absolutely necessary that all goals be achieved.

The Biden-Gelb plan has sparked my interest. It at least addresses all of my concerns and it is essentially a moderate rather than radical solution to the issue so I think it ought to be able to get widespread approval. That said, it is a moral compromise that won't make anyone feel warm and fuzzy inside, but that may be the best that can be done at the moment. At the core of the Biden-Gelb plan is giving Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites control over largely autonomous regions (a federal government would still exist to take care of nationwide concerns), thus ensuring that each major Iraqi group has a piece of the country. Oil revenues will be shared based on population to give each region a source of wealth. A base American force will be maintained to help out, but the numbers of American troops will be sharply reduced. This plan is appealing to me because it manages to reduce the troops on the ground (which will surely reduce deaths as well) and at the same time it attempts to appease Iraq's warring factions. The Biden-Gelb plan emphasizes the carrot over the stick insofar as Iraq's own population is concerned; I think this is wise even if it will likely not lead to an ideal political situation. If violence can be reduced, then it becomes more probable that a more ideal political situation can be achieved, but America and Iraq must deal with the reality that exists in the here and now. The most serious flaw that I see in the plan is that the Sunnis will be subsidized for behaving, essentially: the plan is saying, "Hey, you get a piece of the oil revenues just for staying over in your area!" In my opinion, oil revenues shouldn't be the only thing shared; an attempt (which will be perilous) to build up industry in the Sunni region is needed and perhaps this will be a way the Sunni region can give back to the rest of Iraq. There also needs to be a serious attempt to improve the quality of life in Iraq for all -- obviously this is very difficult to do in a war zone, but if a life of peace does not seem more appealing than a life of war fighting for change then surely people will continue to fight for change. Life in the here and now needs to be better for people en masse to embrace the present. There is also a question as to whether a much-reduced American force will be enough to dissuade hungry neighbors and opportunistic terrorists from grabbing their own pieces of Iraq.

So, I am leaning towards supporting the Biden-Gelb plan, yet I'm still not happy with it all. This plan is practical. It is anything but idealistic, however, and I cannot help but wonder about the future of Iraq if this plan goes through. Imagine if someone came up with a bright idea to divide the USA into regions based on demographics...there could be a black, white, and Asian regions or perhaps Evangelical, Catholic, and atheistic regions. Nothing about that situation suggests a unified country of equal citizens to me. In Iraq, the establishment of the regions might reduce the violence, but if its ultimate effect is the creation of three nations within a nation then America's influence can only be said to have driven the Iraqi people apart. Indeed, it seems common to hear Iraqis talk or write about how everyone in Iraq used to get along. It's not that America created divisions in the country so much as it is that America's entry into Iraq and the ensuing chaos enabled hidden tensions to rise up violently and overtly. Now that these tensions are out in the open how can they possibly be stashed away? Tension won't be the only legacy America leaves Iraq, either; the whole idea of the mandatory sharing of oil revenues is a form of wealth redistribution and an example of a grabbing government in action, isn't it? My plan for even more sharing of revenues could give Iraqis a ravenous, money-eating monster in place of a government that will represent their interests. (Hey, give me a break -- I'm trying to LEARN here. I'm not ready to be setting policy in reality yet!)

Despite my reservations, I do rather think the Biden-Gelb plan is the best plan I've heard to this point. It may or may not work, but in theory it does what I want an Iraq plan to do, and, if nothing else, it will get most American troops out of the country. Hopefully, the Biden-Gelb Iraq will be a temporary Iraq; with the United States out of the way, perhaps the country will be able to move back towards the direction of peaceful unity over time.