Are Donald Trump and Sarah Palin in the Same Boat?

On the surface, no two 2012 Republican presidential hopefuls could be more dissimilar than Donald Trump and Sarah Palin. Palin is a former governor and mayor, a former candidate for vice president, a political commentator, and the honorary chair of one of the more influential political action committees of the 2010 midterm elections, SarahPAC. Trump, by contrast, has never held a political office in his life and his previous flirtations with politics in the past have been as confusing as they have been frequent: he donates to Democrats and Republicans alike, has changed his own political affiliation several times, and even publicly considered seeking the nomination of the Reform Party for president back in 2000. What this unlikely pair do have in common is their status as celebrities. Both are reality TV stars, authors, and in-demand speakers and talk show guests. Although many presidential candidates long to have the kind of name recognition that Palin and Trump have, celebrity status can be a two-edged sword. People may know who Trump and Palin are, but many don't take them seriously due to previous gaffes and well-publicized escapades...they are without a doubt overexposed and their dirty laundry has been aired all over America. It also goes without saying that the personal brands of Trump and Palin would be enhanced by their choosing to run for president; how can the public figure out if Trump and/or Palin are actually running to win or just trying to sell more books and merchandise or set themselves up to host a talk show?

All in all, I think Sarah Palin has the better chance to establish herself as a serious presidential candidate if she does ultimately opt to run in 2012. She has genuine political accomplishments, and she can probably overcome the poor public perception created by her past gaffes simply by avoiding future ones. Indeed, I think a strong performance by Palin in a debate or speech is to an extent magnified because the public always expects her to create a media firestorm with a poorly chosen phrase or two. Her biggest hurdle will be to explain away her decision to suddenly resign as Alaskan governor, especially when she will likely have to face other former governors in the race who didn't "quit on the job." I have serious doubts about whether Palin has the work ethic or even the desire to pursue the presidency at this point -- she's never been a policy wonk and may have discovered she enjoys politics better from the sidelines after all. Even if she is taken seriously as a candidate, Palin will have difficulty making any one issue all her own given that she hasn't managed to do this in the years she's been in the political spotlight. I don't think she can afford to be as cautious a "maverick" as she was in 2008; she'll need to take an energetic approach and get specific about policies she supports since she is no longer new to voters. Indeed, I'd even advise her to court a little controversy...how about adopting a pro-marijuana legalization stance, for instance? Given her past remarks about marijuana being a "minimal problem," that could mark a logical evolution of her views. It won't please some social conservatives -- not even a "leave it to the states" approach would -- but it would definitely differentiate her from the rest of the pack and probably prove an asset in a general election since many legalization advocates are disappointed Democrats.

Donald Trump has the harder road to hoe. He's been more visible than Palin in the past few months as an "unofficial" candidate for president. Despite his utter lack of political experience, he does bring a few things to the table besides name recognition: he's charismatic and an entertaining speaker, a successful businessman who has managed to look failure in the face multiple times and seemingly emerged stronger from it each time, and he is incredibly bold. He's already shown himself willing and able to touch issues no "serious" candidate wants to touch. What other candidate but Trump is talking about raising tariffs on China? Most politicians and economists would consider such a move disastrous even as they themselves decry Chinese currency manipulation, but I think protectionism has long been more popular among the general public than among the elite. There are plenty of people who, like Trump, think a tougher trade policy with China will both create American jobs and force China to ease its currency controls. If Trump keeps the pressure on China, he'll get votes because of it...I have no doubt about that Alas, Trump's boldness is perhaps not always an asset: Trump has also been daring in questioning whether or not Barack Obama was born in the United States and thus whether or not he is actually eligible to be president. This could potentially attract another crowd of voters without a home to Trump's doorstep, but I have a feeling it will turn off a lot more people than it will attract in the long run. Unless Trump can deliver some solid evidence to support the so-called "birther" allegations, he's just peddling a conspiracy theory and unnecessarily angering a lot of people who might not dislike Obama the man but do dislike Obama the president. I think about it this way: if Obama had had two American citizen parents and had spent his whole life in the United States, would Republicans like Obamacare and the stimulus any better? Would they feel more confident about his approach to fiscal issues such as the debt and taxation? If there really is a genuine issue about Obama's citizenship, it's for the courts to handle...presidential candidates should talk politics and there's plenty of policy issues for Republicans to attack Obama on. Then again, perhaps Trump really does know what he's doing: according to a recent poll of the New Hampshire electorate, Trump is running second only to Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination! Polls like that are exactly what conspiracy theories are made out of (could there be a "Trumper" movement to massage poll results in order to get Trump to actually run so that more newspapers will be sold, more ads will be clicked, and more debates will be watched? I have to admit it would make the race more entertaining to follow).

I definitely wouldn't discount the possibility that neither Palin nor Trump will run for president. Trump has already boosted his personal brand without making anything official, and even if he really does want to get into politics he could forgo a run for president and run for something in New York instead, building his credentials for a future presidential run. In truth, perhaps Palin and Trump have something else in common...perhaps neither of them actually want to be politicians! After all, you can be a star and a media sensation without a single person being willing to vote for you. It'll be interesting to see what they both ultimately decide to do.