Thursday, February 18, 2010

Term Limits and Democracy

I have a gut reaction against the idea of absolute term limits. The fundamental idea behind them has always seemed to me to be anti-democratic: aren't term limits considered to be a positive limitation because there is this presumption that the uninformed electorate will keep electing the same bozos over and over again? What's the point of democracy, though, if the people aren't allowed to pick who they want? Maybe they really like those bozos, much more so than they would like the next bozo who wants the office. Every now and then, the person who keeps getting elected might not even be a bozo but rather a transformative personality who really is making things better. It surely cannot be beneficial to replace a superior officeholder with someone not as good because of some arbitrary term restriction.

Gut feelings notwithstanding, watching Latin American politics from afar has given me a slightly different take on term limits. Latin America has historically been plagued by dictators and foreign interference -- it has not been a place where robust democracies have flourished. Perhaps in large part due to that history, term limits are a common feature of electoral politics in the region. Hugo Chavez of Venezuela had to fight one of the biggest battles of his political career to simply earn the right to run again for president in 2012 and beyond. His first attempt to amend the Venezuelan constitution by popular referendum failed -- his second succeeded. On the other hand, Manuel Zelaya's move to try to end the system of presidential term limits on Honduras proved disastrous: a military coup, supported by the Honduran Supreme Court, removed Zelaya from power. A subsequent election elected a new president in Honduras which the world seems to be grudgingly accepting. This hasn't dissuaded Alvaro Uribe, president of Colombia and political opposite of Chavez and Zelaya, from flirting with the idea of running for a third term -- depending on what the courts decide, Colombians may get the chance to amend their constitution and allow Uribe to run again. If nothing else, term limits have certainly brought a lot of political drama to Latin America. Even though a number of popular leaders have been able to adjust these limits, they remain in force in many countries. There's no doubt that there remains something decidedly anti-democratic about them, but I have to admit they are doing their job...they have made it much harder for even a highly popular elected leader to become a dictator. Term limits are like a hurdle which any would-be tyrant must cross at some point. They can't use repeated, controlled elections to give their governments a whiff of legitimacy. That isn't to say that Chavez, Zalaya, and Uribe are all would-be dictators just waiting for their chance to subvert democracy...it's just that if that does happen to be what they are term limits will be remembered as having not made their lives any easier.

Given all the allegations of voter fraud swirling about lately (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Ukraine), I wonder if term limits aren't inherently valuable as a hedge against electoral fraud. At least it makes it more difficult for power to be concentrated in a single individual -- at least someone new must run and be vested with at least nominal power in the government even if someone else behind the scenes really controls things. I still feel reluctant to suggest that the rest of the world follow Latin America's lead, but I do realize now that there is more merit in term limits than initially meets the eye. It's amazing that George Washington was essentially able to set a precedent for American presidents to not serve any longer than two terms based entirely on the honor system that lasted for a over a century -- eventually, however, someone did come along (FDR) who was willing to break the code, and the voters embraced him all the more for it. I'd definitely like to see more of such honor systems: more people should be approaching politics as a civic duty with the expectation that they will happily leave office to pursue other things after completing a reasonable term of service.

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