The Eternal Campaign

The extended battle for the Democratic nomination has provided this election cycle with much of its drama. In a way, I think any such fight to the end is good because it ensures that voters in all states will at least have something of a choice as they should in a republic. However, there is definitely a different feel about this contest compared to the Republican nomination process. It wasn't so long ago that the last Republicans still standing were Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain. Paul, in fact, is still in the race, but he has been gaining a bit more attention of late for his new book than for his campaigning. Considering that Paul is libertarian-leaning, Huckabee is a religious conservative, and McCain is a neo-conservative, these three candidates had little choice but to campaign on ideology. The Democratic presidential campaign, however, has been about character and personality almost from the very beginning. While the horse race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has been exciting, the early withdrawals of the other Democratic candidates has ultimately made the nomination into more of a popularity contest than a political debate.

My personal name for Hillary Clinton's political strategy against Barack Obama is "Death by a Thousand Cuts." For months now, Clinton and her campaign have sought to attack Obama on all matter of character issues. (I don't mean to imply that Obama and his campaign haven't been attacking Clinton from day one as well, but I do think Clinton has been more systematic in her approach! Additionally, I think Obama has intentionally tried to play the gentleman in the debates while Clinton has been very aggressive in them -- that definitely has affected my perception.) I've felt that this strategy has greatly weakened Clinton simply because most of the issues she attempted to hit Obama over the head with didn't seem to be all that important -- at least, not important enough to determine who to vote for. If anything, these flimsy attacks reflected poorly on the attacker. The Clinton campaign must have assumed that, sooner or later, some character issue raised by Clinton would really resonate with the voters -- it's only the law of averages at work. Arguably, Clinton is trailing Obama in the delegate race because none of the character issues raised really did "stick" to Obama as much as Clinton had hoped...certainly that was the case until relatively recently. In my view, Obama really did say something offensive when he suggested that the culture and political leanings of small town America are a direct result of economic factors -- from a sociologist such an analysis could be expected, but I think a presidential candidate seeking small town votes should be more respectful, particularly when it comes to the religious views of Americans. Obama's gaffe probably occurred too late to matter overly much, but I imagine Clinton must have been relieved that her patience finally paid off. Perhaps now Hillary will realize that it is far more effective to attack an opponent's obvious weaknesses than to try to invent weaknesses which don't really exist.

The paramount question surrounding the campaigns of Clinton and Obama has become, "When does this all end?" Obama has the delegate lead as well as the lead in the popular vote acknowledged by the Democratic Party. Clinton, though, seems to be only strengthening as a candidate despite the late date. I thought she clearly won the last debate, and more importantly she is also coming off of a primary win in Pennsylvania, though the margin of victory was less than some expected. For her to quit now would seem strange. How, though, can she ultimately win? A superdelegate-led victory or convention shenanigans would lend a distinctly un-democratic air to the Democratic Party, and neither scenario seems very likely to happen. Indeed, I've lately gotten the impression that Clinton has no serious intention of playing the role of the villain who snatches the golden sceptre right from the hands of the heir apparent. Instead, I think Clinton could be in this for the really long haul. Imagine, for instance, that Obama gets the Democratic nomination and loses to McCain in the general election. Clinton might get some blame for this, but if that does happen I strongly suspect that "security voters" (rather than Reverend Wright voters or bitter small town voters) will put McCain over the top. Clinton has tried to portray herself as more trustworthy on national security issues than Obama, but McCain's military as well as political experience will be tough for either Democrat to brush aside. If Obama does not win the general election, then I think Clinton would be in good position to contest the nomination again in 2012, and she's tenacious enough to want to do so. If Obama wins, then I think there's a good chance that Clinton will run in 2016, perhaps with Obama's endorsement. In short, don't expect an end to the Clinton campaign any time soon. It may outlast all of us.