Iowa Straw Poll Thoughts

The Iowans who voted in today's straw poll in Ames generally rewarded those who invested the most time and energy into courting their votes. Mitt Romney, the candidate who spent the most money courting (and sometimes transporting) Iowa voters, won the poll comfortably as expected. Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback, two candidates who have made Iowa one of the major focuses of their campaigns, finished second and third in the race. On the other hand, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain performed dismally following their decision to not actively compete in Iowa: Giuliani finished eighth and McCain tenth. Tommy Thompson was the one candidate whose performance did not match his effort level; despite campaigning in every county in Iowa, Thompson finished in the disappointing sixth position. Thompson probably handicapped his own chances by announcing that he would drop out of the race if he did not finish first or second in the poll; it appears that the former Wisconsin governor's presidential campaign is coming to an end.

Two of the big stories surrounding the events in Ames did not have anything to do with a particular candidate. First, the voter turnout was smaller than some had expected. Frankly, it was smaller than some had hoped; the Iowa straw poll is a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party, so the more people who pay to vote in it the more money the local Republicans will rake in. It is also common practice for campaigns to foot the cash for their supporters. Given that Romney has been the predicted victor for weeks now and his was the only campaign with significant cash to pour in to Iowa, it's not surprising that people were reluctant to fork over their cash to participate in a political event that seemed increasingly lacking in influence. Secondly, the results of the poll were delayed due to some technical problems; evidently, one of the voting machines used at the event malfunctioned, forcing a recount of some of the votes. That certainly is not a promising sign for next year's election!

At least two candidates performed significantly better than they were expected to. Tom Tancredo finished a very strong fourth, winning 13.7% of the vote. This is huge for his campaign -- take him off the list of people expected to drop out of the race very soon. Ron Paul finished 5th, showing that he can perform decently even in what is considered to be a very traditional state. I think many of the votes for Tancredo were protest votes cast by those upset about illegal immigration. It will be interesting to see if the leading Republicans try to take a harder stance on illegal immigration in the coming months to win these voters over to their camps.

The Iowa straw poll should give more candidates hope than it does despair. I don't think we're going to see as great a weeding out of the lower-tier candidates as some were expecting. Yes, Tommy Thompson is out. Duncan Hunter performed very badly (finishing 9th...even Giuliani beat him!), but I'm not sure this event was a huge deal to him -- he is probably the next most likely guy to drop out, but he might just stay in a little longer, too. The other Republican candidates (apart from the 41 vote wonder John Cox) have no reason to drop out now; this is a time to savor their victories over Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson and attempt to carry the momentum they've picked up in Iowa elsewhere. Most significantly, I think the straw poll was a big statement on the part of Christian conservatives. Huckabee and Brownback were finally given the support from their base that they've struggled to win thus far and I expect their campaigns will continue to pick up steam at least until Fred Thompson finally enters the race officially. If the second Thompson bombs like the first one, then Huckabee and/or Brownback could become top-tier candidates.